There's no worse feeling than being on the clock in the back-half of your Fantasy Football draft and have no idea who to pick.
Do you glance over someone's rankings and just take whoever is the highest? Do you take a name you've heard of before? Or pick a player on a team you like? How much time is left on the clock anyway?? Why are people yelling at you to "just pick already"?!? Why is this so stressful?? Isn't this supposed to be fun?!?
I've been there, and I'm never going back. That's because every year I come up with a list of sleepers who I target with my late-round choices. That's what a sleeper is after all -- someone who you can draft later on and get better value for than others who you take.
After the 2024 NFL Draft, here are some sleepers I'll be on the lookout for.
Stat to know: McCarthy was fifth-best in the entire FBS in completion rate (72.3%) among qualifying QBs. Bo Nix was first (77.4%) but averaged 6.6 Air Yards per throw while McCarthy averaged 9.2. And when he was pressured, McCarthy's completion rate was second-best in the FBS (63.4%), trailing Nix again but Nix averaged 7.5 Air Yards per throw while McCarthy averaged 11.4. McCarthy also attempted more passes under pressure (82) than Nix (64).
Stat to know Part II: Since Kevin O'Connell became head coach, the Vikings have led the league in pass play rate at 63.7%. And if you remove when dual-threat QB Josh Dobbs played last season, that rate rose to 65.1%.
Why is he a sleeper? What is it we want from a Fantasy quarterback? A guy who throws a lot with good accuracy and has good receivers. With the assumption that his accuracy wasn't a two-year mirage in college, McCarthy checks all three of these boxes with the Vikings.
I'd draft him: With my last pick in one-QB; as the 20th or 21st QB off the board in SuperFlex/two-QB
Stat to know: In 2022, Watson averaged a touchdown every 5.9 receptions. In limited work in 2023, Watson averaged a touchdown every 5.6 receptions. The only WR to finish in the top 12 in PPR points per game to come close to that in 2023 was Mike Evans (one every 6.1 receptions). Watson also tied for the team lead in targets per game with 5.9. For context: Watson played just nine games in 2023 and 14 in 2022.
Why is he a sleeper? Because he's entering his third year, he has demonstrated some exceptional ability, he plays with a terrific young quarterback, and he can become a must-start receiver if he can put all of the above together while staying healthy. Is that asking a lot? Yes. Is that why he shouldn't get drafted until Round 8? Also yes.
I'd draft him: Round 8
Stat to know: Odunze led all WRs in the entire FBS in receiving yards (1,640) and was top 10 in total targets (140), explosive catch rate (31.4%), end-zone targets (20) and touchdowns (13; seven in the red zone). Odunze was also 25th in yards per catch (17.8) despite being close to average in Yards After Catch per reception (5.6).
Why is he a sleeper? There's the obvious: He's the youngest wideout in the Bears trio and may prove to be the most explosive. He's also clearly got a nose for the end zone. But it resonated with me when Bears GM Ryan Poles referred to Odunze as a receiver a QB wants to give an opportunity to when in doubt on a given play. If Williams sees Odunze the same way then it's going to result in improved target volume when things break down (or when the ball is held too long).
I'd draft him: About 100th overall in all formats
Stat to know: In the Bills nine games with Joe Brady calling plays (including the playoffs), Shakir led his teammates in touchdowns (three), catch rate (83.3%) and explosive plays (eight) while also manning the slot more than anyone else. He was second-best in yards per target (12.2) and red-zone targets (four). He was third-best in targets per game (4.0) and receptions per game (3.3) behind Stefon Diggs, who is no longer on the team, and Dalton Kincaid.
Why is he a sleeper? Because what if no one else in the Bills passing game steps up? Shakir shouldn't be confused with the fastest or niftiest route-runners in the league, but he's savvy and was used as both a short-area and downfield target last season. He's especially crafty against zone coverage and just had a knack for extending plays late last season. He figures to be a regular in Buffalo's passing game, which should be enough to take a chance on him with a disposable draft pick.
I'd draft him: between Rounds 9 and 10
Stat to know: Working almost exclusively in a passing-downs role in 2023, Spears averaged 9.1 PPR points per game. But in the nine games when he had at least nine touches, that average grew to 10.5 PPR points per game. Seeing five targets per game in those nine definitely helped.
Why is he a sleeper? The entire Titans offense got an overhaul. New playcaller Brian Callahan definitely will utilize his backs in the passing game and should keep things less predictable than prior Titans offensive coordinators who tied themselves to Derrick Henry (for obvious reasons). That unpredictability might hinder your trust in Spears from week to week, but it also could put him in a spot to play more early downs. He's good value for a RB who should still play at least 50% of the snaps.
I'd draft him: Round 8 in all formats (but closer to Round 9 in non-PPR)
Stat to know: Last year was the first time in Edwards' career when he didn't average at least five yards per carry. It was also his first year since 2018 when he performed in an offense without Greg Roman calling the plays. Roman is the new playcaller for the Chargers.
Stat to know Part II: Edwards had a career-high 13 touchdowns in 2023, just as many as the 13 he collected through his first four years. Of course, it must be said that this was in his first year since 2018 performing in an offense without Greg Roman calling the plays.
Stat to know Part III: Roman's offenses ran the ball at least 50% of the time in three of his four years in Baltimore. Running backs had at least 20.7 carries per game in three of the four seasons as well.
Why is he a sleeper? Edwards is the early favorite to lead the Chargers in carries in 2024, though training camp developments could change that pretty easily. If J.K. Dobbins is healthy and explosive, he could unseat Edwards. If rookie Kimani Vidal impresses, he could unseat Edwards as well. Whoever is the best lead back for the Chargers to begin the year is absolutely worth targeting as an early-season Fantasy starting option.
I'd draft him: About 100th overall in all formats
Stat to know: Brown's stats from Weeks 13 through 18 compare rather favorably to Zack Moss' full-season stats in 2023. Of note: Moss averaged 4.3 yards per carry to Brown's 4.1 and had a similar rate of five-plus-yard runs (33.9% for Moss, 33.3% for Brown) and avoided tackle rate (19.1% for Moss, 19.0% for Brown). Where Brown excelled was in yards after contact per rush (3.36 yards to Moss' 2.81) and explosive run rate (9.5% for Brown, 8.2% for Moss).
Why is he a sleeper? Zack Moss has plenty of good play on his resume, but it hasn't been consistent. He also has dealt with a lot of injuries over his career. Brown figures to be the guy behind Moss in Cincinnati and the potential third-down back just as he was late last season. If Moss misses time for any reason, Brown could handle more work.
I'd draft him: Round 10 in PPR, Round 9 in non-PPR
Stat to know: Including the playoffs, Ferguson was second on the Cowboys in targets per game (6.3) and fourth in targets per route run (20%, which is good for a tight end). But would you believe he barely trailed CeeDee Lamb in red-zone targets per game (1.5 to 1.8) and red-zone target share (23.5% to 28.7%). Ferguson had 27 red-zone targets and a dozen end-zone targets, both of which were second on the Cowboys but first among all tight ends.
Why is he a sleeper? Any tight end who can finish first or second on his team in targets warrants serious Fantasy consideration. Here's one who qualifies and outperformed his peers a year ago. With this kind of volume, Ferguson could take a step forward in 2024 and finish much higher than 10th in PPR points per game among TEs.
I'd draft him: Round 10 in all formats
