The 2024 NBA postseason is well underway, and the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
The Pacers are +19 in minutes T.J. McConnell has played in this series and -32 in minutes he's spent on the bench. Jalen Brunson has shot 1-of-7 from the floor with McConnell as his primary defender, per NBA.com tracking data, but he's 24-of-37 against on all other shots. This isn't rocket science. McConnell has to play more. That doesn't guarantee strong numbers, but props are based on a playing time assumption, and one of the best ways to beat the books is to try to anticipate changes to a rotation. More McConnell minutes probably means more McConnell stats. My initial instinct was McConnell's steals prop at over 0.5, but with a -205 line, that feels a bit like cheating. If you're feeling a bit frisky, you can get in on his 3-pointers prop at +190 to hit a single triple, and he is a 41% 3-point shooter for the season, but his volume is so low that I'd understand fear on that front. So I've settled on his assists line, which is his exact season average. Expect the Knicks to show Tyrese Haliburton more defensive pressure in Game 3 after his Game 2 explosion and their egalitarian offense will, therefore, create plenty of assist chances for McConnell if they are sharing the floor more. The Pick: McConnell Over 5.5 Assists
I usually stick to one pick per game on nights with two games for the sake of brevity. However, I also just want to acknowledge how beaten up the Knicks are right now. Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, Bojan Bogdanovic and OG Anunoby are all out. Brunson is listed as questionable. Somebody has to score here. My favorite pick on the board here is Deuce McBride over 11.5 points. Remember, Tom Thibodeau is not going to distribute Anunoby's minutes evenly. Precious Achiuwa struggled in a bigger Game 2 role once Anunoby went down. I'm expecting more McBride minutes in Game 3, and "more McBride minutes," by Thibodeau's definition, might mean 40. That's not an exaggeration, he's played 40 or more minutes 12 times this season and averaged 16.6 points in those games. This is another example of trying to anticipate a coach's rotations to get ahead of the books. Whether you like McBride or Achiuwa, someone is going to get Anunoby's minutes. The Pick: McBride Over 11.5 Points
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
The coronation of Minnesota's No. 1 ranked defense is warranted, but it's gotten a little out of hand when a team that hasn't reached the conference finals yet is getting compared to the best defenses of the century. Game 1 of this series went over the projected point total for Game 3, albeit barely. Four of the five first-round games these teams played last season went over it as well. Four of the five games the Nuggets played against the Lakers did too, and so did three of the four games Minnesota won over Phoenix in the first round. A point total of 204.5 is just a lot lower than it looks on first glance. Even the best defenses are subject to a bad whistle, or shooting variance, or one of the dozens of other ways a game can become high-scoring. The Nuggets may not win Game 3. I have a hard time believing their offense lays another egg with three days off to prepare. The Pick: Over 204.5
